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GreatBallsoFire
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Quote GreatBallsoFire Replybullet Posted: 26 May 2012 at 15:46
Originally posted by agri2001

Hooray for Dilma..!Tongue
Yes, Dilma has the head of the Banco Central in her hand. She is demanding lower interest rates. The hot money of Europe and the world that was making big coin buying high intereswt rate Brazilian bonds then riding the tidal wave of the srong real on the commodities rally is over. Things are now going the other direction.
 
Hot money is leaving Brazil seeking a safer harbor. Look at Petrobras stock hitting new lows. CSN as well.
 
Yes, I was in Spain last December. In Madrid the electrinic shop with stuff from China was empty. Nobody buying stuff.
 
Help from Dilma is a bit dangerous. The PT dominates the gov with no real opposition. If they swing more to the left, which is a real possibility, they could start re nationalizing companies and grab foreighn owned assets.  Why do you think all foreign residents must declare all assets as Brazilian assets abroad?
Simia quam similis, turpissimus bestia nobis. Oi amigo, pode trazer a saideira?
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jkennedy
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Quote jkennedy Replybullet Posted: 26 May 2012 at 15:55
Nationalizing would basically happen once, and then it would be all over.  The government would be replaced on the next election.  As soon as you nationalize the first company, all investors flee at once.  No one will want to deal with you after that.  The government knows this, only a desperate country does this, and it's usually with something that was a rip off to start with.  Some commodity that was given away for some pittance.   Even then, the backlash is huge.  People will cheer it, until a few months later when the repercussions start showing up.

So if you go into the most ghetto areas, backwater cities of Brazil, you can claim that mercedes just aren't selling in Brazil anywhere, it's a doomed industry.  Going to Spain, and then saying  no one is buying electronics is completely mis leading.  Isn't spain one of the places with some issues right now?  Shouldn't you be looking at the majority, say.. look at Germany and check out their electronics business?   Where you in an area that normally does a lot of electronics?  Where you present during the times they normally do business, and compared with previous years, how busy were they then too?   How about all the other little gadgets China puts out.  The things that fill up many markets, the $1-$25 items.  

There is just so much to do in Brazil, and so little time to do it all! Planning my next Brazil Vacation and the countdown has started!
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GreatBallsoFire
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Quote GreatBallsoFire Replybullet Posted: 26 May 2012 at 17:03
Originally posted by jkennedy

Nationalizing would basically happen once, and then it would be all over.  The government would be replaced on the next election.  As soon as you nationalize the first company, all investors flee at once.  No one will want to deal with you after that.  The government knows this, only a desperate country does this, and it's usually with something that was a rip off to start with.  Some commodity that was given away for some pittance.   Even then, the backlash is huge.  People will cheer it, until a few months later when the repercussions start showing up.

So if you go into the most ghetto areas, backwater cities of Brazil, you can claim that mercedes just aren't selling in Brazil anywhere, it's a doomed industry.  Going to Spain, and then saying  no one is buying electronics is completely mis leading.  Isn't spain one of the places with some issues right now?  Shouldn't you be looking at the majority, say.. look at Germany and check out their electronics business?   Where you in an area that normally does a lot of electronics?  Where you present during the times they normally do business, and compared with previous years, how busy were they then too?   How about all the other little gadgets China puts out.  The things that fill up many markets, the $1-$25 items.  

No you are wrong. Nationalizing can take a very long time. In Argentina Cristina Kirchner just nationalized YPF and took it away from Repsol, with a vote of the Congress and the stroke of a pen.  In Brazil Petrobras is a natioanlized oil company with a minority private shareholder stake.  The Gov sets the price of gas at the pump, not Petrobras. That's why gas costs seven dollars a gallon. Life goes on.  The people in Brazil have voted in a red socialist government and there is a real risk of the gov shifting farther to the left. Every other word out of Dilma's mouth is "redistribuir renda," (redistibute wealth).
My point about the empty electronis shop in Spain has to do with the real slowdown in Europe which is causing a drop in Cinese exports, leads to a drop in China demand for commodities, so Brazil gets fewer dollars for same amount of goods sold and this causes a weaker real. Dilma forcing the Selic down sends the hot money away and the real goes lower.Wink
Simia quam similis, turpissimus bestia nobis. Oi amigo, pode trazer a saideira?
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Squiddie
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Quote Squiddie Replybullet Posted: 26 May 2012 at 17:40
Wow, nationalization could mean that when we buy property as foreigners, they might take it all away?
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jkennedy
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Quote jkennedy Replybullet Posted: 26 May 2012 at 17:45
I understand what you're saying as the drop in exports, but china exports all over the world now.  The majority of europe still has a job, so yeah a place like spain that might have 25% unemployment has 75% employed, and still buying up a lot of crap.    The chinese has an internal market, and they're complaining of slowing growth.  So even if they went to 0 tomorrow, they're still in need of imports, it just means no growth.    Even negative growth, still means most of what they're producing is still being produced. 

I bet Argentina starts feeling some pain though, people will start pulling out their money, worried it might happen to them. 

I suspect that what will cause problems is the interest+debt in the future.  Brazil needs to keep spending this money.  If they can't get more of it, then they might start getting desperate.  It won't be from an outside source, which might impact a very small amount of their market.  Even if europe drops their imports, china will find a way to consume them internally to partially offset declining productivity, and then brazil will do the same, and finally companies will cut back a bit. 


There is just so much to do in Brazil, and so little time to do it all! Planning my next Brazil Vacation and the countdown has started!
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GreatBallsoFire
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Quote GreatBallsoFire Replybullet Posted: 26 May 2012 at 20:07
Great job Guido Mantega. The banks in Brazil are raping the country. You and Dilma force interest rates down 40% from present levels and the Real is at three to the dollar! I agree 100% with what you are doing as the Real should be at three to the dollar or lower to encourage jobs, trade and reduce the custo Brasil.
 
 
26/05/2012 - 18h00

Mantega dá um mês para bancos reduzirem juros em até 40%

Publicidade

FÁBIO BRANDT
DE BRASÍLIA 

O ministro da Fazenda, Guido Mantega, deu um mês para bancos privados reduzirem suas taxas de juros mais altas. A queda esperada, segundo ele, é de 30% a 40%. O ministro prometeu fiscalizar os bancos para que a redução dos juros não seja compensada com aumento das tarifas dos serviços.

Leia a transcrição da entrevista com o ministro Guido Mantega

"Se os bancos privados reduzirem 30%, 40% e aumentarem o volume, 30%, 40%, já estarão prestando um serviço à economia brasileira. A nossa intenção é ter um acompanhamento semanal dessa história. E eu vou cobrar", afirmou o ministro.

Mantega falou sobre o assunto no "Poder e Política", projeto do UOL e da Folha conduzido pelo jornalista. A entrevista foi gravada no Ministério da Fazenda, em Brasília, no dia 24 de maio. Também participou como entrevistador Valdo Cruz, repórter da Folha.

Trechos da entrevista com Guido Mantega - 14 vídeos

Mantega dá 1 mês para bancos cortarem juros de 30% a 40%

Segundo ministro da Fazenda, governo está dando condições para instituições fazerem mudanças. Ele falou ao UOL e à Folha em 24 de maio de 2012.

Compartilhe este vídeo:

Na entrevista, o ministro disse que o governo está pensando em um modo de ajudar devedores inadimplentes de até R$ 100 mil a quitarem suas dívidas com os bancos. A estratégia envolveria facilitar o pagamento dos impostos que as instituições de crédito devem pagar ao receber as quantias dos devedores.

Mantega afirmou que o PIB (Produto Interno Bruto) do Brasil crescerá de 3,5% a 4% neste ano mesmo com a crise. O número é otimista comparado a algumas projeções que estimam alta de só 3%.

Guido Mantega em entrevista ao Poder e Política

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O ministro da Fazenda, Guido Mantega, participa do programa "Poder e Política - Entrevista", conduzido pelo jornalista Fernando Rodrigues Leia mais


Edited by GreatBallsoFire - 26 May 2012 at 20:09
Simia quam similis, turpissimus bestia nobis. Oi amigo, pode trazer a saideira?
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digiwench
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Quote digiwench Replybullet Posted: 27 May 2012 at 20:37
Originally posted by spongebob

No, the EURUSD has been dropping, along with the Real and the other commodity currencies. This big downfall started a few week ago, and has pretty much progressed unabated. There are a few other pairs that show some strength, but in a crisis situation, they will eventually fall as well. I think this is tied to the very long-term cycle. So maaaaany years have passed that the dollar was weak. Eventually countries like Brazil started taxing inflows of foreign funds. Consumer demand has fallen very low. Everyone in the business community here (except exporters) have been saying that that are seeing the numbers drop. It's funny how I said ON THIS SITE a couple of weeks ago, how demand for new cars has fallen off the cliff. Then the Brazilian government lowered the IPI. I think this is a good example of why you save during the great time to be able to buy when things are cheaper.



Agree with you and GBoF completely on your respective analysis

Brazil, near term, has priced itself out of the market

If the situation in Greece or Spain gets uglier, there is a potential of a disorderly run on their banks

Spanish banks, esp, have been a strong source of FDIs into Brazil

So has Europe

As money is kept home to recapitalize banks and shore up reserves, these banks are selling off assets in LatinAmerica, and will slow down their investments

already happening - Spain's Banco Santander selling 40% of its Brazilian assets to raise capital

http://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/economia,santander-negocia-venda-de-fatia-no-pais,113803,0.htm

Europe dominates FDI into Brazil

http://brazilianbubble.com/chart-europe-dominates-fdi-into-brazil-beware-of-spanish-crisis-contagion/

Just fresh from the Globe & Mail:

They’ve got an awful lot of worries in Brazil

BRIAN MILNER FROM MONDAY'S GLOBE AND MAIL
Last updated Sunday, May. 27, 2012 7:20PM EDT

...In effect, it’s the last nail in the coffin for the BRICs as an investment theme, which should have been buried long ago anyway.

The idea of lumping together the largest emerging countries made for a catchy marketing ploy. But it never made much sense, given their widely different economies, prospects, institutional issues and political structures, as more than a few observers of the developing world have long pointed out. Russia is all about oil, gas and oligarchic muscle;

India is still more a swamp than lush paradise for foreign money; and Brazil, in the view of one critic, “is the un-China, with interest rates that are too high and a currency that is too expensive.”


In the immortal words of Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards, BRIC ought to stand for “Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept.”

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/theyve-got-an-awful-lot-of-worries-in-brazil/article2444770/?service=mobile

From my POV, watching daily flow of funds, I think the tide has turned on a decade long trend

Few trends, esp based on commodities, manage to last for 20 years. Most are a decade, and the decade is up

This is not a tragedy. In my life span I've seen several booms and busts in Brazil, as I have in NYC and LA, and frankly, I like these places better after the boom. They calm down, tensions decrease, prices become more human

its all a cycle, no need to fight it. As SB said, save up money during the boom years, to buy cheap during the bust years...thats how the smart money does it, anyway


Edited by digiwench - 27 May 2012 at 20:41
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Squiddie
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Quote Squiddie Replybullet Posted: 27 May 2012 at 21:22
What do you guys thing about the near term development of real estate prices? I have been scanning the shore line with Google earth looking for nice terrenos hillside with beach views and I noticed a lot of subdivision activity up and down the coastline around Ubatuba. There seem to be lots of streets laid out with small 800 m2 lost, but not yet sold. Have they overdone it?
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Quote spongebob Replybullet Posted: 28 May 2012 at 07:43
Originally posted by digiwench


From my POV, watching daily flow of funds, I think the tide has turned on a decade long trend


That's exactly my observation. It sounds a little scary at first for those who live here, but if you look at the "crisis" times here, it seems like they weren't like the great depression. I would rather be in Brazil during a crisis than a small European country that has to import everything.

BUT we'll have to see how it plays out. Everyone here has noticed a down-tick in sales, [[ except the exporters ]].

Whoever talked about asset confiscation, this is not the US and their "Civil Forfeiture". That is appalling! But for safety sake, I do everything in my kids' name. I got that idea from many other Brazilians. I'm not Brazilian, yet.

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Gringo.Floripa
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Quote Gringo.Floripa Replybullet Posted: 28 May 2012 at 09:06
Originally posted by Squiddie

What do you guys thing about the near term development of real estate prices? I have been scanning the shore line with Google earth looking for nice terrenos hillside with beach views and I noticed a lot of subdivision activity up and down the coastline around Ubatuba.


I assume you're talking about Ubatuba-SP and and not Ubatuba-SC, which is near Joinville.  If so, I only know that Itamambuca and Praia Felix are excellent beaches for surfing at UbaSP, but know nothing about the RE market there.  I think it's hard to make a general statement about 'near term' RE prices in Brasil, because we have anomalies like Rio and Sampa, which disproportionately tip the scale for RE values.  Even towns like Florianopolis and Curitiba tip it too.  But there are still bargains to be found elsewhere in the country!

If you scan Google Earth a bit further south to SC, then just south of Floripa, and zoom in on the beaches north and south of a town called Imbituba (mostly the beaches south) then I think you'll find some stretches of coastline that are still very reasonable in price!  There's also some incredibly scenic land (LARGE parcels) with hillside elevations on the other side of Lagoa Mirim (southwest of Imbituba), meaning you have amazing views of both the lagoa, and the ocean in the distance.  As the BR101 nears completion of it's renovation in this region, to reach Floripa is 2hrs, or less.

I've posted in other threads, I believe this area is a sleeping giant, about to awaken....


Now, back on topic....

Bankia's Writedowns Cast Doubt on Spain's Bank Estimates


Spain Considers Injecting Debt Rather Than Cash into Bankia


Switzerland May Set Capital Controls if Euro Collapses


European Firms Plan for Greek Unrest and Euro Exit



I think it's obvious there will be riots in the streets in Greece.  With Summer being just around the corner, it will be more significant how the (vast) unemployed youth in Spain (+/- 50%) respond/react to no jobs.  Riots there could be an indicator of woeful days (deep recession/depression) coming to Europe, and even possibly the Euro....

Meanwhile, the PT has yet to learn the lesson from other countries, that an economy based on spend-spend-spend consumerism is a rua sem saida....


I might bark, but I don't bite.

(trolls, sock puppets, Brasil-bashers, and "Joined:Today" persons too lazy to use the Search function excluded; cry babies too)

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